Transitional Eritrean Government in Exile: Since Eritrea’s independence in 1993, the country has never experienced a peaceful or glorious transition of power, nor has it witnessed a coup. Additionally, The country couldn’t build any form of government institution, that can help to facilitate a peaceful transition of power. The current fascist regime, the PFDJ, is also devoid of any experience in succession within the party. Moreover, President Isaias Afwerki does not have a vice president or a succession plan. Furthermore, Afewerki chose to steer Eritrea with a fascist system of governance and it exposed Eritrea to war and uncertainty. As a result, many Eritreans are growing increasingly frustrated with the uncertainties surrounding the post-Afewerki era.
For several years, prominent Eritrean elites residing in the diaspora—particularly in countries like Israel, various European Union member states, and the United States—have engaged in in-depth discussions regarding the critical need for a peaceful transfer of power in Eritrea. These discussions have centered around establishing a transitional government that would function within the borders of Eritrea itself, as opposed to being based in exile. This focus demonstrates a strong dedication to advancing revolution, stability, and democratic governance in Eritrea, highlighting the need for an inclusive process that engages Eritreans both within the country and across the diaspora.
Amidst this dialogue, Ghebre Bahdurai, a former member of the Eritrean Liberation Front-Jebha and the Yiakel movement, has taken the initiative to declare himself President of the National Representative Council of Eritrea, which he positions as a government in exile. His declaration is significant, as it seeks to fill the anticipated power vacuum that could emerge in the wake of the potential collapse of President Isaias Afwerki’s long-standing regime. Bahdurai’s efforts aim to formalize a governance structure that could provide a framework for political legitimacy and organization, appealing to Eritreans at home and abroad who are yearning for change.
In his exclusive interview with SETIT, Bahdurai admitted that the government in exile does not represent the interests of the Eritrean people, either at home or abroad. He has also lost legitimacy among Eritrean diaspora stakeholders, and his primary focus appears to be gaining legitimacy from international actors, particularly the United States.
Firstly, Eritrea requires a legitimate interim government that is explicitly recognized by the majority of the domestic and diaspora, including all three social classes—nomads, farmers, and even members of the current ruling Azmarino elite cronies-. Such a government is essential to facilitate a smooth transition into a permanent democratic system, build robust democratic institutions, foster public trust, and ensure security.
Secondly, The people of Eritrea deserve a peaceful and dignified transition of power, similar to South Africa’s historic transformation. Achieving this vision requires inclusive political dialogue rather than armed conflict. A dialogue-driven approach can unite the nation’s diverse communities and pave the way for a stable, democratic, and prosperous future.
Bahdurai’s transitional government in exile has deliberately undermined Eritrea’s territorial integrity by collaborating with Afar separatists. Additionally, having lived in exile for nearly 50 years, Bahdurai lacks a comprehensive understanding of the nation’s social, economic, and political realities. His agenda appears focused on establishing a puppet government that primarily serves the interests of foreign powers, particularly the United States and international organizations.
In the meantime, the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait, a critical chokepoint, continues to attract significant attention from global powers such as France, China, Japan, and Italy, all of which maintain military bases in neighboring Djibouti. Additionally, regional actors like UAE, Qatar, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and Israel have vested interests in the Red Sea region. If the Eritrean people fail to ensure a peaceful power transfer, foreign actors will likely intervene to safeguard their strategic interests. The Eritrean political elite should work to avoid this from happening.
Does Eritrea need a Transitional government in exile?
Eritrea is currently ruled by a fascist regime led by Afewerki, making a government in exile an unsuitable solution for the country, as the ruling fascist government remains in power. Instead, Eritrea needs a bridge government that operates from within the country. Unfortunately, most of Eritrea’s political elite are jailed and exiled or have been terrorized by the current fascist regime. Moreover, Domestic stakeholders lack the necessary experience in dialogue-based solutions to determine the country’s future.
Despite these challenges, the national army and security forces are responsible for facilitating the transition to a permanent, stable, and democratic government. This can be achieved through the establishment of a constitutional democratic system. Moreover, the people of Eritrea have a longstanding customary law known as Hgi-Enda’ba, which can serve as a foundation for a democratic system and constitution. This tradition offers a valuable opportunity to build a system rooted in Eritrea’s culture and history while fostering inclusivity and justice.
To sum up, the task of a transitional government is not merely about resolving the current succession issue. It is about preserving national dignity, achieving glory, and ensuring sustainable development. A successful transition of power can occur if Eritrean stakeholders choose to resolve their problems through dialogue and cooperation. As for Bahdurai, he does not fully understand Eritrean culture, including the society’s dress code, and should focus solely on diplomatic efforts to support establishing a transitional government within the country. Relying on foreign powers could steer the nation to destruction and anarchy. Eritreans genuinely need not a transitional government in exile but a caretaker government operating within the country to guide Eritrea toward a stable and democratic future.