Eritrea’s Crossroads: Regime Change or Full Revolution?

A thorough examination of Eritrea’s history reveals a consistent absence of a democratic governance system at the national level. While local communities and villages have long practiced an Indigenous form of representative democracy known as “Bayto”, which emphasizes collective decision-making and community participation, this model has not been reflected in the nation’s political structure.

Since its establishment as a colony in 1890, Eritrea has experienced various forms of authoritarian rule. Initially, the colonial governance imposed by Italy was marked by fascist principles that suppressed local voices and autonomy. Following World War II, the subsequent annexation by Ethiopia introduced further imperialistic governance, which marginalized local cultural identity and governance.

In the late 20th century, the rise of the Derg regime—a Marxist-Leninist military junta—further entrenched authoritarian control, replacing imperialism with a different form of oppression. Under the Derg, political opponents faced severe repression, and the state implemented policies that targeted Eritrea’s quest for self-determination. As a result, the dreams of establishing a democratic framework at the national level have remained unfulfilled, leaving the country’s governance characterized by systemic repression and a lack of political plurality.

Since gaining independence from Ethiopia in 1993, Eritrea has remained under the same ruling regime, which has not undergone any significant changes through regime shifts, the ousting of its leadership, or revolutionary movements. This lack of political transformation has allowed the existing fascist government, characterized by its authoritarian and repressive practices, to maintain a tight grip on power. As a result, the country has continued to experience ongoing human rights abuses and suppression of political dissent, reflecting the enduring challenges faced by Eritrean society in seeking democratic reforms and improved governance.

Exploring the possibilities of Regime Change in Eritrea

Regime change in Eritrea involves the removal of President Isaias Afewerki and his ruling party, the People’s Front for Democracy and Justice (PFDJ). This process, however, carries the risk of maintaining the existing repressive political system rather than facilitating meaningful democratic reform. Many activists in the Eritrean diaspora often mix up regime change and revolution. They do not see that changing a regime does not guarantee a fairer government.

The scenarios that could lead to regime change are varied and complex. One possibility is a military coup, where factions within the armed forces might displace Afewerki in a bid for power. Another scenario could involve an internal power struggle among PFDJ elites, where leaders within the party might vie for control, potentially leading to a new leader who adopts similar oppressive policies. External pressures, such as international sanctions, diplomatic isolation, or intervention by foreign governments, might also act as catalysts for regime change.

The outcomes of these changes are unclear. If a new leader comes to power without making important reforms, Eritrea could end up with another authoritarian regime that continues the same oppressive practices. If the transition lacks a clear plan, it might lead to a failed state, causing a complete breakdown of governance and worsening the current economic and humanitarian crises. Although many call for regime change to escape oppression, the results may still fall short of the hopes for democracy and human rights in Eritrea.

Revolution and the Path to a Glorious Transition in Eritrea

Revolution fundamentally seeks to bring about significant changes in the political, social, and economic structures of a society. In the context of Eritrea, this revolution aims to dismantle the existing fascist political system, which has suppressed democratic governance and personal freedoms. One of the primary objectives is to establish a democratic system that promotes political pluralism and respects human rights.

The revolution seeks to end the practice of forced indefinite military service, which has coerced many citizens and adversely affected the country’s workforce and overall morale. This change is crucial for establishing a society where individuals can freely pursue their ambitions without the constant fear of conscription.

The revolution also highlights the importance of improving economic conditions by tackling unemployment, poverty, and resource mismanagement. The emphasis on state-building aims to establish a stable and prosperous Eritrea, where economic opportunities are available to all citizens. This approach seeks to foster a sense of national unity and progress. Together, these goals present a transformative vision for a society that prioritizes democracy, personal freedom, and economic equity.

When a revolution is guided by peaceful dialogue and a spirit of cooperation among all Eritrean farmers and laborers, it has the potential to lead to a transformative and glorious transition. This approach can be likened to South Africa’s remarkable shift from the oppressive system of apartheid to a thriving democracy. During this transition, open conversations and mutual understanding among diverse groups played a crucial role in overcoming deep-seated divisions and building a united society. By prioritizing peace and collaboration, societies can foster significant change, avoiding the violence and turmoil that often accompany more aggressive forms of revolution.

Eritrea’s Social Classes and the Quest for Genuine Revolution

In Eritrea, society is divided into three distinct social classes: approximately 91% of the population consists of farmers and laborers, around 7% are nomadic herders, and a small group of about 2% comprises cronies who support the ruling elite. According to estimates based on World Health Organization (WHO) data, the total population of Eritrea in 2023 is approximately 3,470,390, 3 158 055 farmers and laborers, 242 927 nomads, and 69 408 cronies. 

The cronies, who benefit from the current regime, are primarily interested in regime change rather than a fundamental revolution. In contrast, the vast majority of farmers and laborers are advocating for a revolutionary change in the country. The farmers and laborers, in particular, are actively leading the charge for this revolution under the guidance of a movement known as Mahber-7. They are fighting for their rights and better living conditions, emphasizing the urgent need for profound change in Eritrea’s political system.

In summary, the farmers’ and laborers movement in Eritrea is passionately advocating for a comprehensive revolution aimed at achieving a glorious transition towards a more just and equitable society. This movement represents the hopes and aspirations of many who seek genuine revolution. In stark contrast, the cronies, linked to the current regime, are primarily focused on pursuing regime change. However, their approach lacks the essential element of reforming the entrenched fascist political system that has long oppressed the Eritrean people.

For Eritrea to move forward and thrive, it is vital to not only seek regime change but to instigate a genuine revolution. This revolution should aim for a transformation towards a representative democratic system that embodies the values of freedom, justice, and participatory governance. Achieving such a glorious transition is essential for the sustainable development and empowerment of Eritrea’s citizens, ensuring their voices are heard and their rights protected.