Could Eritrea Become the Next Syria?

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Could Eritrea Become the Next Syria? Both Eritrea and Syria, are not far apart geographically, but their social and political fabrics differ significantly. Syria gained its independence in 1946, directly after World War II, whereas Eritrea achieved independence in 1993, shortly after the collapse of the Soviet Union and the end of the Cold War.

Even though there is no statistical agency in Eritrea, The majority are Orthodox Christians, mostly Tigriyan farmers and laborers, making up approximately 50–70% of the population. According to the Minority Rights Group, 75% of Syria’s population is Sunni Muslim. Politically, the two countries also differ, Syria has been ruled by a family dynasty for over fifty years, while Eritrea has maintained a fascist political system. Currently, Eritrea continues to operate under a fascist regime. Despite their differences, neither country has functional government institutions, and both have produced significant numbers of refugees. According to UNHCR, Syria has produced 6.2 million refugees, while Eritrea has produced approximately 600,000, roughly one-fourth (¼) of their respective populations.

Transition of Power

Syria has a tumultuous history marked by a lack of peaceful or stable transitions of power. Since gaining independence in 1946, the country has experienced roughly nine coups, each resulting in significant shifts in governance and authority. These frequent upheavals have created a pattern of instability that continues to impact Syria’s political landscape today.

In stark contrast, Eritrea has experienced a singular, uninterrupted leadership since President Isaias Afewerki assumed power in 1993, following its long struggle for independence from Ethiopia. The absence of power transitions in Eritrea has led to a highly centralized political system. An attempt at a peaceful transition by a dissident group known as the G-15 in 2001, which sought to promote democratic reforms and greater political freedoms, ultimately failed and resulted in the imprisonment of its members, further entrenching the current regime. This juxtaposition highlights the divergent paths of political evolution in Syria and Eritrea, with Syria’s history of coups and instability contrasting sharply with Eritrea’s static political environment.

Opposition Groups

The al-Assad family dynasty began when Hafiz al-Assad came to power in 1971 through a coup. His son, Bashar al-Assad, succeeded him in 2000, continuing the family legacy. Over the past ten years in office, Bashar has faced significant challenges from political and armed opposition groups, many of which have received support from foreign powers, including the United States, Turkey, Gulf Arab states, and the European Union, particularly after the Arab Spring. Despite these challenges, Assad has maintained support from allies like Iran and Russia. However, the conflicts in Ukraine, Gaza, and Lebanon have weakened these alliances. As a result, Assad has faced significant setbacks against Syrian opposition groups, often without putting up much resistance.

Isaias Afewerki, the President of Eritrea, has encountered numerous challenges throughout his tenure, including significant political opposition and armed resistance. Among these challenges were attempts at peaceful dialogue led by the G-15, a group of former allies who sought democratic reforms. Additionally, in 2013, a coup attempt orchestrated by Islamist factions, notably under Colonel Said Ali Hijay (commonly referred to as Wedi Ali), presented a serious threat to his regime. 

Despite these challenges, the opposition against Afewerki remains highly fragmented and lacks cohesive leadership or a unified agenda. This disorganization and internal division prevent the opposition from exerting substantial influence or mounting a formidable challenge to his authority. Consequently, Afewerki has maintained a strong grip on power, navigating through both political turbulence and military threats while effectively suppressing dissent.

Challenges of Tyranny

Tyrannical regimes, like those of Bashar al-Assad in Syria and Isaias Afewerki in Eritrea, present significant challenges to dismantling, not due to their fundamental strength, but primarily because of the shortcomings of the opposition groups that confront them. These opposition factions often lack cohesion, effective organization, and strategic vision. Many have failed to develop robust leadership structures or to articulate clear, achievable goals that can unite their efforts. As a result, these groups struggle to mount a formidable challenge against the established authoritarian regimes, allowing such governments to maintain their grip on power despite widespread discontent among the populace.

The Transition of Power Without Bloodshed

Eritrea has never established government institutions that can facilitate a peaceful transfer of power. Additionally, there is no consensus among Eritreans regarding the succession of President Isaias Afewerki. Opposition groups also lack the plans and leadership necessary to manage the power vacuum that would likely arise following his departure.

To prevent chaos, all segments of Eritrean society must engage in dialogue about the country’s future. The People’s Front for Democracy and Justice (PFDJ) plays a crucial role in determining whether Eritrea’s transition will be peaceful or tumultuous. Additionally, opposition groups need to unite around shared goals and principles.

Conclusion

The people of Eritrea are at a pivotal crossroads, confronting a crucial choice that will shape their nation’s future. They must decide whether to follow a path marked by the violent upheaval seen in countries like Syria and Sudan or pursue a more hopeful trajectory akin to South Africa’s peaceful transition in the 1990s.

For Eritrea to steer away from the cycle of conflict, it is essential for its citizens to focus on building strong organizational structures both within their homeland and among the diaspora communities around the world. This collective action is vital for fostering a unified front capable of advocating for change.

By taking inspiration from South Africa’s approach during its transition, Eritrea can prioritize open political dialogue, inclusivity, and negotiation. Such efforts could ensure a smooth and peaceful transfer of power, allowing for the establishment of a democratic framework that respects human rights and promotes lasting stability while avoiding the unnecessary violence that has ravaged other nations.

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